I’m going to write about election results from The Big Alabama Election. I’m starting about 7 PM EST, which is about an hour before the polls close.
Just for the record, I don’t live in Alabama so technically this election is none of my business. But it’s the only election tonight so it’s getting a lot of national coverage. It’s like a Monday Night Football game… it’s the only one on.
I’ve seen this tweet a number of times today:
In Alabama today, confirmed reports of:
▪️ACTIVE voters listed as INACTIVE
▪️Police intimidation at polls
▪️Long lines due to insufficient equipment
▪️Misleading ballots
▪️Texts telling people their polling location changedTHESE ARE ALL FORMS OF VOTER SUPPRESSION.
— Mikel Jollett (@Mikel_Jollett) December 12, 2017
I’ve seen reports like this in literally every election I’ve paid attention to since roughly 2006. People try to suppress votes, and people try to get out the vote. It happens in every single election. This should not be a surprise.
Incidentally I’ll be watching CNN because I love watching John King and his election data touch screen thingy. I also think Wolf Blitzer trying to make election results exciting with his deadpan monotone is just about the funniest thing on television.
I’m actually expecting that the results will come in at exactly one minute after the polls close. I will be surprised if Doug Jones wins.
Erin Burnett is obviously losing her voice but I guess she didn’t want to miss The Super Bowl of Alabama Senate Elections. :)
Early exit poll: Majority of Alabama voters decided before Moore's scandal https://t.co/i1isycLffl pic.twitter.com/AmGmsCNuT7
— MSNBC (@MSNBC) December 13, 2017
That tweet pretty much guarantees a Roy Moore win.
This news about North Korea is arguably more important than this election:
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says the US will no longer demand that North Korea give up its nuclear weapons in order to start talks with the rogue nation https://t.co/nKn5tia8Au pic.twitter.com/THeJU0EiqB
— CNN (@CNN) December 12, 2017
White House press secretary: “The President's views on North Korea have not changed. North Korea is acting in an unsafe way not only toward Japan, China, and South Korea, but the entire world. North Korea's actions are not good for anyone and certainly not good for North Korea.”
— NPR (@NPR) December 13, 2017
Surprise, surprise: Tillerson and Trump aren’t on the same page about North Korea.
7:32 PM – John King just said that both sides are claiming a high turnout.
7:43 PM – (On the North Korea thing, I suppose it’s possible they are doing a deliberate good cop/bad cop strategy.)
WashPost confirms that its reporters were denied access to Roy Moore’s event tonight: “We were denied credentials and when our reporters asked to enter they were told no.”
— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) December 12, 2017
If Roy Moore wins this evening, Phil Mattingly says the Senate GOP will meet Wednesday morning to discuss – amongst other things – whether they "can they afford to cast aside a Republican vote, when they already have such a razor-thin majority." https://t.co/8er0q0N3Fd pic.twitter.com/1s50HBLcnt
— OutFrontCNN (@OutFrontCNN) December 13, 2017
7:48 PM – Incidentally, it is snowing again. I had hoped it would all be gone by tomorrow.
7:51 PM – Unrelated, but:
The Rock says he's 'seriously considering' running for president on 'Ellen' https://t.co/Chd7aDx5ul #PresidentTheRock #TheRock2020 . Run, @TheRock , run.
— Lance Ulanoff (@LanceUlanoff) December 13, 2017
7:52 PM – (I, obviously, don’t think The Rock is a good choice to be leader of the free world, but since Trump opened Pandora’s Box, I guess it’s pretty much open season now.)
7:56 PM – CNN is doing their last-minute suspense-building before the polls close. I’m still predicting they are going to project a winner at exactly 8:00 PM. :)
8:00 PM – Awwwwwww. What a letdown. “Too early to call.”
8:01 PM – Give me a break. “Overperforming by a few points.” “Underperforming by a few points.” That’s obviously within the margin of error on those exit polls.
8:13 PM – Lulz. CNN reported results with less than 1,000 votes counted.
8:20 PM – “It’s going to be an exciting night,” says Wolf Blitzer. Oh boy! Actually I enjoy watching John King working this map. You can really tell that he loves doing what he does.
8:25 PM – “This is the black belt.” Every time somebody says that, they immediately add, “It’s called that because of the top soil! Really, it’s the top soil!”
8:48 PM – CNN seems to be very excited about Doug Jones leading with only 2-3% of the precincts reporting (mostly absentee ballots). That is not just “too early to call,” that is “don’t even bother.” I am embarrassed to even be writing it here, but there is a definite sense of “Doug Jones is doing great!” from Wolf Blitzer and John King. (Which is, incidentally, the more dramatic result–the come-from-behind victory, so to speak.)
9:07 PM – CNN’s John King is starting to sound like Roy Moore is “pulling ahead.”
Roy Moore campaign manager Rich Hobbs tells crowd in Montgomery that early numbers are coming in and asserts that "it's a good night" – @VaughnHillyard
Track the results with us on https://t.co/5uPfjfRYJk -> https://t.co/sxmlm8dWTU pic.twitter.com/pxZnbvsDRh
— NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt (@NBCNightlyNews) December 13, 2017
9:13 PM – Sheesh. That last tweet expanded to be like a thousand feet tall.
Seeing some evidence of a turnout differential, where the blue areas are avg to high while the red areas are avg. to low… Not HUGE differentials, but the type that's making this race get tighter.
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) December 13, 2017
Folks, our model thinks that the GOP may have a big turnout problem.
The three, white, GOP counties have fallen far short of our turnout estimates–including two under 75% of our estimates.
That's what the big swing in our estimate is about.— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017
9:36 PM – CNN says 51% counted, 51.4 Moore 47.2 Jones.
NYT also seems to have Jones projected to win 78% in Montgomery, versus 61% Clinton in 2016. Again, skeptical, but if those numbers hold Jones would certainly be on pace to win.
— Sean T at RCP (@SeanTrende) December 13, 2017
9:40 PM – John King keeps saying “the math is possible” but he sure doesn’t make it sound like it’s very likely.
9:42 PM – But on the other hand, we have this:
We think that the preponderance of the remaining vote is in Democratic-leaning areas pic.twitter.com/ES1JZr9SBd
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) December 13, 2017
9:45 PM – I have no knowledge of how it works in Alabama, but here in Virginia, it is typically rural areas who report first, and cities who report later. So it usually looks like the Republican does well early on, with the Democrat pulling even or ahead later.
This is all about the raw turnout now. Jones is benefitting from seeing higher turnout in their strongholds while Moore’s strongholds are seeing below average turnout. This doesn’t mean Jones is going to win but it’s the recipe he needs to win
— Chuck Todd (@chucktodd) December 13, 2017
10:00 PM – CNN says 72% counted, 50.5 Moore, 48.1 Jones.
10:09 PM – John King seems a little more confident about Jones’s chances. Wolf keeps reminding us that it’s a really dramatic race. :)
79% of the vote:
Moore 49.9%
Jones 48.6%#ALSenateRace— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 13, 2017
It's tied at 49.2%-49.2% between Roy Moore and Doug Jones https://t.co/LUkDxtBAvy pic.twitter.com/5caiQBuIFm
— POLITICO (@politico) December 13, 2017
I’m convinced John King could name every single county in every single state in the United States of America
— Joshua Chavers (@JoshuaChavers) December 13, 2017
10:22 PM – Twitter momentum seems to be breaking for Doug Jones. That is, people seem like they’re starting to believe he can actually win.
Jones up by 10,983 votes with 89% of the vote in
49.7-48.7
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) December 13, 2017
BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones wins election as U.S. senator from Alabama. @AP race call at 10:23 p.m. EST. #AlabamaElection #APracecall
— The Associated Press (@AP) December 13, 2017
BREAKING NEWS: Fox News projects Democrat Doug Jones will defeat Republican Roy Moore in Alabama’s special election race for the U.S. Senate. https://t.co/vS3z9keSt3 pic.twitter.com/43eACQ725T
— Fox News (@FoxNews) December 13, 2017
BREAKING: Democrat Doug Jones will win the Senate special election in Alabama, CNN projects https://t.co/BARA8oQvDR pic.twitter.com/VOqjO8c9BY
— CNN (@CNN) December 13, 2017