There is a lot of consternation about today’s House vote on H.R. 1628, the American Health Care Act (AHCA).
Back in April (I think?), Republicans pulled the bill before voting because they didn’t have enough votes, and the world rejoiced. This time, the rumor mill says that it might pass by as little as 1 vote. Activists have been out in force imploring people to call their Representatives.
Update: H.R. 1628 passed 217-213, with 20 Republicans voting no, and 1 Republican not voting. (All Democrats voted no.) The bill now has to go to the Senate where it will undoubtedly undergo further changes, then it goes back to the House to approve the Senate changes.
Incidentally, in case anyone feels like blaming me in any way, my Representative in VA-04 is a Democrat. I think I was recently “gerrymandered” from a solid-R district (VA-07) to a mostly-D district (VA-04), but I’m not completely sure. All I know is that for most of my adult life I’ve been in VA-07 but this last time I was in VA-04, and while I *did* move in 2016 I didn’t think it was *that* far.
Amazingly enough, VA-07’s Tea Party Conservative Dave Brat actually voted *for* H.R. 1628! His constituents will probably be mad about that.
For those in despair, I would reiterate that this thing still has to pass the Senate, and then it has to go back to the House, a rather bumpy and uncertain road to travel.
I wrote the following when the bill failed last time but never published it. It still captures my generally ambivalent thoughts fairly well.
Last week House Republicans pulled the AHCA bill (“Trumpcare” or “Obamacare Lite” or “AHCA” depending on your flavor of politics) from the floor to avoid watching it publicly go down in flames. Most of the people in my circles celebrated, though they are in the uncomfortable position of having to thank conservative Republicans for saving healthcare.
I don’t know anything about healthcare or insurance, so I literally have no idea what to say about this issue. Most of the terminology used to discuss healthcare and insurance goes right over my head. I don’t even *want* to understand it. I just want to be able to go to a doctor, get whatever appropriate prescription, and hand them my credit card for services rendered. (I know, I know, this is an incredibly naive viewpoint.)
However, despite my ignorance of the details, I’m reasonably convinced that the ACA (“Obamacare”) is, in fact, “collapsing.” I don’t understand exactly what “collapsing” means in real terms but I’ve read plenty of trusted sources that agree it’s getting worse, not better. (Aetna just announced they are leaving Virginia’s market.)
The point is that celebrating over Republicans’ inability to “repeal and replace” (laughable political double-speak for “modify”) Obamacare is a bit premature. I’m not saying I think the Republican plan is good, bad, or indifferent, but there’s a good chance it was better than nothing, and “nothing” is probably where we’re headed if nobody does anything.
Now I’m under no illusions personally that it is entirely the fault of Republicans, particularly conservative Republicans, that Obamacare is failing. They had seven years to compromise and make it more sustainable and chose not to. Now they’ve scuttled *their own party’s* plans to make it more sustainable. Conservatives literally believe “nothing” is better for the country.
Ethics of affordable healthcare aside, the important question now is who will Americans blame when Obamacare dies and everyone loses their healthcare? Clearly it depends on *when* it dies. If it dies while Trump is in office and Republicans control both houses of Congress, it seems likely people will (correctly) blame Republicans. This is why we saw Trump making the amusing statement after the bill had been pulled, “Democrats now fully own Obamacare.” He and every reasonable Republican knows damn well that they will be blamed if it fails during their tenure, so they have a lot of propaganda work to do to shift the blame.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Republicans try to sneak in some little tweaks to Obamacare to prolong it beyond a Trump administration. Which might not be a bad thing. Maybe that’s the only way to compromise in Washington now. Not to make our country better, but to screw over the other party.
